The YouTube TV-Disney battle is bigger than you think — it probably affects you too

The fight between Disney and YouTube TV might seem fairly commonplace on the surface, especially if you’ve followed any carriage disputes in the pre-streaming era. But despite Google’s cable replacement showing no signs of slowing down its growth, the stalemate between it and the House of Mouse has already expanded well beyond its usual scope, without any signs of peace coming any time soon.

Carriage disputes are nothing new, and usually, they follow the same pattern of events. As any contract nears its end, both network owners and cable providers come to the table to renegotiate their respective terms. Typically, this goes off without a hitch, but if the two companies can’t come to a resolution, it’s the viewers who end up missing out on their regularly-scheduled programming. Eventually, without fail, the two mega-behemoth corporations who started the fight agree to a fresh set of terms, channels are restored to their usual state, and if they’re lucky, customers are paid a small — practically ceremonial in stature — credit to make up for the interruption in service. And the Earth keeps spinning.

Google and Disney’s fight might’ve started out on that same track, right down to that promised apology credit should this whole thing stretch on long enough. But since channels like ABC and ESPN left YouTube TV’s virtual airwaves on October 31st, we’ve already seen some unexpected consequences affecting people who might not even know what YouTube TV is.

On the cable TV side, we’ve already seen the typical effects spiraling out from Disney’s blackout. A primetime college football game on Saturday, November 1st dipped from its season average, as did the Monday Night Football broadcast between the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys. Not a sports fan, but still enjoy live TV? Dancing With the Stars has hit a ratings rebound this season, but without ABC available for YouTube TV subscribers, the show saw its six-week streak of audience growth — a first in 34 years, according to The Hollywood Reporter — end, perhaps prematurely. Fans instead had to turn to Disney+ to watch Andy Richter’s continued success on the dance floor.

YouTube TV, meanwhile, is facing public polling — that, naturally, Google disagrees with — showing nearly a quarter of its customers would plan to cancel their subscription should ABC and other Disney channels not return to the airwaves. Considering the extremely high price of such a service, those opinions shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

All of these might be unintended consequences, but they’re also expected consequences. Again, carriage disputes are nothing new. What is new, however, is the collateral damage being racked up, damage that affects untold millions of additional Google users that don’t subscribe to YouTube TV.

In its feud with Google, Disney has turned to its mega-library of films and TV shows to utilize as leverage when and if the two brands return to the negotiating table. It began with Disney’s decision to pull its movies from every digital storefront offered by Google. That’s not just the legacy “Movies” section on the Play Store; it also means anything produced or owned by the House of Mouse has disappeared entirely from Google TV and YouTube.

Now whether you don’t have kids or you’re not a superhero fan, you might be tempted to dismiss this move out of hand. However, because of the sheer magnitude of Disney’s library, these missing titles extend well beyond The Avengers and Star Wars. In addition to the adult-oriented fare Disney used to make under studios like Touchstone — Armageddon, The Help, Three Men and a Baby, and the early works of M. Night Shyamalan, to name a select few — it also owns the entirety of Fox’s catalog, with titles like X-Men, Home Alone, Cast Away, The Martian, and thousands more.

It wasn’t long after this move that we also learned Disney had pushed Google out of its Movies Anywhere service, affecting not just its own catalog, but titles from Warner Bros., Sony, and Universal. Digital purchases that support Movies Anywhere no longer sync with your Google account, and anything purchased through Google’s storefronts — which, again, will be non-Disney content — won’t make it into, say, your Prime account. It’s a massive splintering of digital libraries for Google users, and it’s one that impacts way more than just YouTube TV subscribers.

All of this points to a very abnormal carriage dispute, one where Disney seems intent on using every inch of leverage it’s gathered throughout its Bob Iger-run era to impact as wide a group of people as it can. It’s also impossible not to notice that Disney’s actions immediately followed the acquisition of Fubo, one of YouTube TV’s main rivals. That service is set to be merged in the coming months with Hulu + Live TV, leaving consumers with very little competition worth swapping to over YouTube TV — and that competition is non-existent if your primary reason for signing up for the platform happens to be the NFL.

It’s worth pointing out that Google plays its own role in this fight, reportedly asking for a shorter 1-2 year contract rather than the more typical 3-5 year deal given to distributors. YouTube TV has seen plenty of growth in the past few years — again, its Sunday Ticket deal has really been a boon for the brand — and Google is obviously using that success as its own leverage in this fight. But considering the deal YouTube was looking for is apparently “similar” to what Comcast and Charter have agreed to in the past, Disney still feels like the bigger villain in this dispute.

Ultimately, though, it doesn’t matter. The end result is a worse experience for Google users across the board, whether or not you subscribe to YouTube TV. Disney has built a strategy that funnels disgruntled subscribers directly towards its bottom line, with either Disney+ or Disney-owned live TV services being the obvious solutions to fixing whatever media’s currently missing in your lift. That leaves the Hollywood giant with enough leverage to wonder if this is the first carriage dispute that, frankly, might not get resolved at all. Forget missing out on Dancing With the Stars — as far as Google’s digital storefronts are concerned, we might be looking at a complete split between these two brands.

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